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http://uk.news.yahoo.com/14032007/323/blair-facing-rebellion-nuclear-weapons-vote.html

LONDON (AFP) - Prime Minister Tony Blair on Wednesday faced potentially the biggest rebellion from within his own party since the Iraq war as lawmakers vote on renewing Britain's Trident missile nuclear deterrent.

Blair has only been defeated four times in parliament since he came to power in 1997, but a sizeable number of rank-and-file Labour lawmakers have indicated they will go against the government in the early evening vote on the issue.

Although he is unlikely to lose the vote, political commentators say he will have to rely on the support of the main opposition Conservative Party, which critics say will weaken his position.

Outlining his support for renewing Trident last year, Blair told parliament that although the Cold War was over, "new and potentially hazardous threats" to British security from states like Iran and North Korea could emerge.

No other nuclear state in the world was considering unilateral disarmament and it would "unwise and dangerous" for Britain not to have such an "insurance policy" against unspecificed future threats, he said.

Defence Secretary Des Browne, likely to lead the debate in the lower House of Commons, made a direct appeal to Labour rebels Wednesday, telling BBC radio: "We need to take this decision now.

"We need to be clear what this decision means: it's a firm commitment to maintaining our deterrent and that's what I ask members of our party and what I will ask the House of Commons today.

Critics of Trident, including church leaders and unions as well as the traditional anti-nuclear lobby, dispute government claims it would cost 15-20 billion pounds (22-29.1 billion euros, 29-38.5 billion dollars) to replace.

Instead, they argue the figure could rise to more than 100 billion pounds if maintenance and other costs are added, and that the money could be better spent elsewhere.

Opponents say most Britons are against renewing Trident and that in doing so, Britain was being hypocritical because of its attempts to prevent Iran and North Korea obtaining nuclear weapons.

It could also potentially trigger a new wave of nuclear proliferation, they add.

Within Labour, where unilateral nuclear disarmament was once party policy in the 1980s, grassroots members and left-wing traditionalists in parliament have accused Blair of stifling debate on the proposals and want more discussion.

Protests are being held at the Faslane Royal Navy in western Scotland, which houses the four Vanguard-class nuclear submarines that carry the US-built missiles, and outside the Houses of Parliament on Wednesday.

Four Greenpeace protesters scaled a crane on the River Thames next to parliament on Tuesday and plan to stay there until the vote is taken while three protesters scaled the parliament building in Edinburgh Wednesday.

Two junior ministers in Blair's government quit this week to be able to vote against Blair.

More than 100 MPs, including 60 from Labour, have put their names to an amendment to Wednesday's vote aimed at delaying the decision, arguing that the case for renewing Trident is "not yet proven".

The biggest rebellion against Blair was in March 2003 over Iraq, when 138 Labour MPs, including the former foreign secretary Robin Cook, supported an amendment opposing the decision to invade.

Debate on Trident was due to start around 1230 GMT, with a vote scheduled for around 1900 GMT.


http://uk.news.yahoo.com/14032007/325/blair-faces-revolt-nuclear-weapons.html

Blair faces revolt over nuclear weapons

LONDON (Reuters) - Prime Minister Tony Blair could face one of the biggest rebellions by the Labour Party in a decade in power on Wednesday when parliament votes whether to renew Britain's nuclear arsenal.

As many as 100 Labour MPs could reject Blair's plan to spend up to 20 billion pounds on three or four nuclear-armed submarines to replace the ageing Trident system.

That would be the biggest rebellion against Blair since nearly 140 Labour politicians voted in 2003 against war in Iraq and Blair's biggest setback on a domestic issue since he came to power in 1997.

Blair, who has a majority of 67 in the 646-seat Commons, is expected to win with the help of the Conservatives who have said they will back the replacement.

Blair, due to step down in a few months, argues Britain must retain nuclear weapons because new threats from Iran, North Korea or nuclear terrorists make it dangerous to abandon them.
Opponents say there is no need for the weapons now the Cold War is over and Britain will set a bad example to countries such as Iran and North Korea by insisting on keeping them.

"Our decision could well be the hinge point between real impetus towards stopping proliferation or a trigger leading to a cascade of further proliferation...," Michael Meacher, a left-wing Labour legislator who will challenge for the party leadership when Blair goes, said in a statement.
Critics say the money could be better spent and complain they are being rushed into a decision by an outgoing prime minister eager to create a legacy.

Nigel Griffiths, deputy leader of the Commons and a member of the government, resigned on Monday in protest at Trident's replacement. Jim Devine, a ministerial aide, was also reported to have quit on Tuesday although he could not be reached for confirmation.

The government argues design and construction of new submarines will take so long that it must act quickly to have a replacement ready when the existing nuclear submarines go out of service in about 2024.

"You have to make a decision now because of the long lead times involved ... If you don't do so then you are de facto making a decision not to replace Trident," Blair's spokesman said on Tuesday.

The government said in announcing its proposals in December it would cut Britain's nuclear warheads by 20 percent to fewer than 160 and may reduce its submarine fleet to three from four.

A deep hostility to nuclear weapons runs through the Labour Party, which espoused unilateral nuclear disarmament until the late 1980s. Almost two-thirds of Labour MPs who took part in a poll released on Sunday opposed the plan.
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